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MAMATA WINS YET AGAIN

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TMC won Bengal but the BJP didn’t lose it really. If we just look at the vote share of the political parties then we come to the point that TMC’s vote share is intact at 48 per cent but the BJP’s vote share has galloped to 38 per cent from a mere eight per cent from the previous elections.

Mamata Banerjee has won the by-election from the prestigious Bhabanipur seat with a margin of over 58,000 votes for she was under the constitutional set up to become a Member of the assembly within six months from the time she took oath as the Chief Minister. 

Bhabanipur win wouldn’t just allow Mamata Banerjee to continue as the Chief Minister but will also propel her to eye the post of United Progressive Alliance Chairperson. Now what makes for this case? The Congress party is in the decline and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) can at best share power in Maharashtra. Sharad Pawar, who too has ambitions to head the UPA may help others to take power or lose power in some regions of some states. Trinamool Congress is perhaps the only political party which is vocally anti-Modi and is rising on the Indian electoral landscape aggressively. Moreover TMC, unlike the Aam Admi Party and Congress does not have any dearth of funds for fielding candidates, hiring helicopters and mobilizing grassroots workers and setting up cadres in North Indian states. 

Mamata had proposed the name of Sharad Pawar as a future candidate for the elections of the President of India as that will comfort her own march to the post of UPA Chairperson. Sonia Gandhi has health issues and Rahul Gandhi is an unproven inexperienced leader and he will not be acceptable to other coalition members of the UPA. Congress appears to be vanishing from India. Mamata as UPA head will automatically inch closer to Prime Minister’s Office in an unlikely scenario of 2024 where the BJP is unable to form the government at the centre for any reason. 

TMC has made its intentions clear to all that now the party is moving beyond not just to mark its presence but convert the presence into electoral seats. It’s focusing on Hindi and Bengali speaking pockets in almost every part of the country. Tripura, lower Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Goa and now Meghalaya too is under Mamata’s radar. 

To guide her party to become a dominant opposition force in the country, TMC is attracting talent from elsewhere. Yashwant Sinha, Babul Supriyo, Mukul Roy, Sushmita Dev and Luizinho Faleiro are few heavy guns who have come to the TMC fold to raise TMC’s tally rise in Lok Sabha and state assemblies. 

Prashant Kishore’s I-PAC is openly poaching Congress leaders in Goa, offering them clandestine deals and vision of secure future under Mamata Banerjee.

But nothing comes in politics without a caveat !!

TMC won Bengal but the BJP didn’t lose it really. If we just look at the vote share of the political parties then we come to the point that TMC’s vote share is intact at 48 per cent but the BJP’s vote share has galloped to 38 per cent from a mere eight per cent from the previous elections. 

If the BJP is just able to corner a mere 5 per cent from the TMC, we might see a saffron government in Bengal. The real losers in the game are obviously the Left front and the Congress. The duo ruled Bengal for decades but in the last elections both drew ‘zero seats.’ CPM’s vote share is just above four per cent and Congress’ just below three per cent. 

If we see the trend, then we find that the future trajectory will either benefit the BJP or TMC or both. The Left and the Congress have too little to gain.


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